Covid-19 Journal

  Latest projection does not look too good.

Had the first zucchini and pepper two days ago and picked the second one today. Picked the first pole beans yesterday and had them for supper.  Picked a crop of snow peas today. Finished the last of the radishes today in potato salad. This trend is somewhat curious. The number of cases of Covid-19 in the US is rising greatly but the number of deaths continues to decrease. Some possible explanations for this trend could be: The demographic has shifted and mostly younger people getting the virus. There are better treatments available and interventions are happening sooner. The curves are offset by a few weeks, so it takes some time before people start dying. This does not seem to pan out because the peek in April followed the peak in cases by about two weeks and we should have seen an increase in the past two weeks. There is increased testing so many of the new cases are less severe or asymptomatic. Not sure if I believe this yet. The virus has mutated and is not as deadly. Whatever the

The death rate in the United States showed an approximately exponential growth rate through the middle of April to just over 2000 deaths per day, then an approximately linear decline through the rest of April and May to the present rate of about 1000 deaths per day. The curve seems to be curving back up now which could indicate a second wave will be occurring. The CDC changed the colors of the graph a few days ago to blue. Not sure why. Maybe it is to help people with red green color blindness. They also modified the format of the state data on the website so it is now harder to parse. This graph is from May 21: This is an average of deaths per day for the past 11 days ending June 4, 2020. New York 101 Illinois 82 New Jersey 81 Massachusetts 71 California 66 Pennsylvania 66 Ohio 39 Maryland 39 Michigan 37 Florida 34 Connecticut 32 Georgia 29 Virginia 26 Indiana 24 Texas 23 Minnesota 21 North Carolina 19 Arizona 19 Louisiana 18 Mississippi 16 Colorado 16 Rhode Island 15 Iowa 14 Wisconsi

Feeling good today. Eau Claire is giving 600 tests today and they are free.Test and trace has begun. I think this means we are finally on the road to recovery. My new router arrived yesterday but it has to sit in quarantine for three days before I can try it and see if it solves my connection issues. Still working on my daughter's laptop which is very lagged. My work computer does not have much lag but it tends to drop the internet connection frequently. The models are looking very good for Wisconsin:

Staying home has been easy for me because I am a technical college instructor and I have been able to teach from home. I do not usually go out much. I enjoy working in my garden. I can design stuff on the computer. It really is not bad for me. I take many precautions to hopefully not catch the virus. We have developed systems for getting the mail and groceries. Anything that would bring us into contact with other people. Most of our shopping is online. My wife drives to the grocery store and they put the groceries into the trunk. Anything that is perishable we wipe off with bleach. Non-perishables sit in the garage for three days. We transfer eggs into a different egg container. Sometimes our daughter brings us groceries. We talk to her from our deck in front of the house. I try to drive the car around once a week to help with the battery, the tires, and the breaks. Get it moving a bit. We are almost out of gas for the lawn mower. I siphoned gas out of the snow thrower into the lawn mo

This meta report has a variety of models in it for the month of May:

Since the death rate is now approximately constant a simple linear least squares model can be used to figure out when we will hit the following milestones: Total US Deaths Date 100000 5/18/2020 200000 7/6/2020 300000 8/24/2020 400000 10/11/2020 500000 11/29/2020 600000 1/17/2021 700000 3/6/2021 800000 4/24/2021 900000 6/12/2021 1000000 7/30/2021 Average deaths per day for May 1-3 2020 US States New York 308 New Jersey 257 Massachusetts 142 Michigan 116 Illinois 102 California 95 Connecticut 90 Pennsylvania 63 Indiana 58 Florida 48 Texas 33 Georgia 31 Maryland 30 Colorado 28 Minnesota 26 Ohio 23 Louisiana 23 North Carolina 21 Virginia 18 Wisconsin only had 1 new death today but Eau Claire county had 5 new cases. Haven't done the Wisconsin sequence for a while so here it is: