Wednesday May 6 2020

This meta report has a variety of models in it for the month of May:











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Wednesday April 1 2020

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They are finally showing some of the models they are using. NPR has a description of the models the US government is using: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824744490/5-key-facts-the-white-house-isnt-saying-about-their-covid-19-projections?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR3trvrAHXq9VqCW84raytleeDvGUzGiVsT3uPZbPT3p3jZgDy-D68uxhhA&fbclid=IwAR0UzSdydE2DXH7FBRk9RszYRl0W386FoCHSqF13mHcVW7jdLYDn8C5W6mU They seem to be ignoring this one: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf I think these models are underestimating how much this is going to spread considerably. New York has already reached .86% of its state's population infected while Italy is at .175% infected. Of course most of New York's population is concentrated in New York City. Eau Claire's Info is here. We seem to be g...
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Monday June 29 2020

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It has been a while since I updated this blog however there is a disturbing trend to the data so I thought I would add some more to this. The number of cases in the US is taking a disturbing upward trend that could go exponential. The number of deaths are on a downward trend but they will be lagging the number of cases. This is the trend from the US and the world. CNBC makes a nice graph.
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Friday June 5 2020

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The death rate in the United States showed an approximately exponential growth rate through the middle of April to just over 2000 deaths per day, then an approximately linear decline through the rest of April and May to the present rate of about 1000 deaths per day. The curve seems to be curving back up now which could indicate a second wave will be occurring. The CDC changed the colors of the graph a few days ago to blue. Not sure why. Maybe it is to help people with red green color blindness. They also modified the format of the state data on the website so it is now harder to parse. This graph is from May 21: This is an average of deaths per day for the past 11 days ending June 4, 2020. New York 101 Illinois 82 New Jersey 81 Massachusetts 71 California 66 Pennsylvania 66 Ohio 39 Maryland 39 Michigan 37 Florida 34 Connecticut 32 Georgia 29 Virginia 26 Indiana 24 Texas 23 Minnesota 21 North Carolina 19 Arizona 19 Louisiana 18 Mississippi 16 Colorado 16 Rhode Island 15 Iowa 14 Wisconsi...
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