Monday May 4 2020


Since the death rate is now approximately constant a simple linear least squares model can be used to figure out when we will hit the following milestones:


Total US DeathsDate
1000005/18/2020
2000007/6/2020
3000008/24/2020
40000010/11/2020
50000011/29/2020
6000001/17/2021
7000003/6/2021
8000004/24/2021
9000006/12/2021
10000007/30/2021

Average deaths per day for May 1-3 2020 US States
New York308
New Jersey257
Massachusetts142
Michigan116
Illinois102
California95
Connecticut90
Pennsylvania63
Indiana58
Florida48
Texas33
Georgia31
Maryland30
Colorado28
Minnesota26
Ohio23
Louisiana23
North Carolina21
Virginia18
Wisconsin only had 1 new death today but Eau Claire county had 5 new cases.




Haven't done the Wisconsin sequence for a while so here it is:



































Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Monday March 30 2020

Image
Now they are finally admitting that the death toll will be 100,000 to 200,000 Americans but the actual toll could be much higher. The original study said it would be 2,000,000 unless we did strict social distancing and then it would only come down to 1,000,000. Oh, I guess Trump did mention about the millions of deaths. And we are not doing social distancing. Take a look at a Menards parking lot. Menards is having a sale. Here are the charts for today:
Read more

Tuesday May 5 2020

Image
The people who refuse to isolate themselves are the ones who are to blame for keeping the US closed. Those that have been following the quarantine instructions are the true patriots. Be a patriot, stop the spread. It saves lives and saves the economy. Now that I have been doing the quarantine for a while I am starting to really see the benefits of it. I work from home. I almost never drive anywhere. We produce much less waste. I do not buy things unless I really need them. I spend more time out in the garden. I spend more time with my family. We are producing less carbon emission. I think this type of lifestyle change could be showing us what would be necessary to prevent climate change. Number of deaths reported to the CDC from Covid-19 between May 4 -5. Florida reported zero but their web site says 72 so I put it in for them. Arizona apparently had 83 rise from the dead presumably as zombies. 157 New York 86 Massachusetts 86 Michigan 73 Maryland 72 Florida 61 Connecticut
Read more

Friday June 5 2020

Image
The death rate in the United States showed an approximately exponential growth rate through the middle of April to just over 2000 deaths per day, then an approximately linear decline through the rest of April and May to the present rate of about 1000 deaths per day. The curve seems to be curving back up now which could indicate a second wave will be occurring. The CDC changed the colors of the graph a few days ago to blue. Not sure why. Maybe it is to help people with red green color blindness. They also modified the format of the state data on the website so it is now harder to parse. This graph is from May 21: This is an average of deaths per day for the past 11 days ending June 4, 2020. New York 101 Illinois 82 New Jersey 81 Massachusetts 71 California 66 Pennsylvania 66 Ohio 39 Maryland 39 Michigan 37 Florida 34 Connecticut 32 Georgia 29 Virginia 26 Indiana 24 Texas 23 Minnesota 21 North Carolina 19 Arizona 19 Louisiana 18 Mississippi 16 Colorado 16 Rhode Island 15 Iowa 14 Wisconsi
Read more