Covid-19 Journal

Last day of March, what a month. April looks to be really bad. New York, Michigan, Illinois, California, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas. Wisconsin can't hold out much longer with the states next to us all blowing up. The internet connection keeps dropping today. Not sure why. The most dangerous part of my day is when I go to check the mail. We have our mail on a 3 day quarantine just to be careful. I first glove up and put the 3 day old mail into a tray to go in the house, the two day old mail goes from the 2 day bag to the 3 day bag, 1 day bag to the 2 day bag. Then I take the bag out to the mailbox, spray the mailbox with 409, wipe it off with a wet paper towel, put the mail into the 1 day bag and store it in an old microwave in the garage. Then I clean my gloves and wash my hands. I don't have too many pair of gloves so I have to clean them. Here are the charts for today: Time series maps:

Now they are finally admitting that the death toll will be 100,000 to 200,000 Americans but the actual toll could be much higher. The original study said it would be 2,000,000 unless we did strict social distancing and then it would only come down to 1,000,000. Oh, I guess Trump did mention about the millions of deaths. And we are not doing social distancing. Take a look at a Menards parking lot. Menards is having a sale. Here are the charts for today:

The CDC has not update the US map since 3/26 but I did find a set of data going back to the first infection on one of the other pages. I think Wisconsin usually takes Sunday off too. So here are the latest graphs: I did find this one: I made a graph showing the percentage increase along with a five day running average. Very noisy data: It looks like it might be trending down a bit so that would be good. Not too much to tell today. Had cereal for breakfast and spaghetti for lunch with tomato sauce and pesto. Worked on my classes. I think I will be ready for Monday. This reminds me of a Nanotechnology joke I used to tell: In a nanotech war for the first two weeks nothing appears to happen, then everyone on the losing side disappears.

This is how the leaders of America practice social distancing: CDC has not updated their page since March 26. Wisconsin has added some graphs: This slope looks nearly linear. That would be good. Someone sent me this math modeling site:  http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths?fbclid=IwAR3BaHy3TBuHLvMb2hQ3TZIuTy0FZr_7Xu45g_DL2qAQz6Dsd_cnMfvE-TI This actually doesn't look too bad. Some disturbing news about the cost of Covid-19 and the tests. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-one-should-hesitate-to-seek-treatment-how-much-does-it-cost-to-get-tested-for-coronavirus-the-answer-is-complicated-2020-03-05?reflink=mw_share_facebook&fbclid=IwAR3zAOw4lAnusSfdzl80zdGTdNOZEs9Lkajx1HuHx55L_GBV_sgfPNNMu7o How and when will it end: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/what-we-know-so-far-about-how-covid-19-pandemic-could-end-180974533/?

Here are the graphs for today: So basically we messed up choosing something between the black curve and the red curve: The Hammer and the Dance Some countries like China, Korea, and Singapore were able to hit the green curve. The US was not. Instead we went to the beaches for spring break, we went to Mardi Gras, we went to the basketball game, we went to the stores to buy stuff, we went to work everyday. What changes will see in the future? The Four Possible Timelines for Life Returning to Normal Some things that will no longer exist: Schools, concerts, sporting events, amusement parks, malls, crowded beaches, movie theaters, parades. By the way don't invest in anything that has to do with crowds. A friend wrote this: This is the best at-home advice I've seen on respiratory issues. Always welcome other advice or changes (copied the following from a FB group I joined): CORONA COMMON SENSE Since they are calling on Respiratory therapist

I am moving my updates to the afternoon because I work in the mornings. Here are the latest graphs: Continuing to increase exponentially across the globe. Continuing to increase exponentially in the US Peak date prediction: April 23 Peak date for Wisconsin: April 24 This graph compares Wisconsin growth rate to my exponential model. This should tell me how predictable it is. At some point I should see some divergence.