Thursday April 30 2020

I did not post yesterday due to not having a computer. I had lasagna and German's chocolate cake for dinner.

Someone online asked how many people died of the flu compared to Covid-19. Abut half that many last year, so far:

What I think is happening in the US is about 1/3 of the people are afraid to go out of their houses and are doing a good job of sheltering in place. About 1/3 of the people are doing some reduced social contact but still have to go to work and such. About 1/3 of the people are going about doing exactly what they were doing before and completely ignoring any restrictions. I heard someone say that if everyone stopped moving for two weeks the virus would disappear. But if a significant portion of the population keeps moving around then the virus has a chance to continue to spread and basically we trash the economy without getting any of the benefit.

I think the US is about to learn a very hard lesson. Most people around here look at New York and think yeah, that's too bad what happened in New York. But they don't think it will happen here. We will not learn from other people's mistakes.

The federal state and local governments should have presented a unified response to this threat. Any naysayers would be put down quickly at all levels. Instead we have the president tweeting about liberating Michigan and politicizing the pandemic. It's a hoax, it will go away like a miracle, we have a new drug that will make it go away, etc. This lack of consistency will be the tragedy for the US.

At this point in the pandemic it is probably most effective to watch the number of deaths per day. Most of the models I have seen have been predicting deaths per day, in the country and at the state level. The other factor that makes this important is the theory that there are many undetected cases going around and so the death rate is much lower than you can calculate just by looking at the numbers which would be between 1-5% which is much higher than the regular flu, also many more people are susceptible to this virus.

Here are the graphs for today.






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