Monday April 27 2020

My computer died today so I am writing this on my phone.

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Wednesday April 1 2020

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They are finally showing some of the models they are using. NPR has a description of the models the US government is using: https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/824744490/5-key-facts-the-white-house-isnt-saying-about-their-covid-19-projections?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&fbclid=IwAR3trvrAHXq9VqCW84raytleeDvGUzGiVsT3uPZbPT3p3jZgDy-D68uxhhA&fbclid=IwAR0UzSdydE2DXH7FBRk9RszYRl0W386FoCHSqF13mHcVW7jdLYDn8C5W6mU They seem to be ignoring this one: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf I think these models are underestimating how much this is going to spread considerably. New York has already reached .86% of its state's population infected while Italy is at .175% infected. Of course most of New York's population is concentrated in New York City. Eau Claire's Info is here. We seem to be g...
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Friday June 5 2020

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The death rate in the United States showed an approximately exponential growth rate through the middle of April to just over 2000 deaths per day, then an approximately linear decline through the rest of April and May to the present rate of about 1000 deaths per day. The curve seems to be curving back up now which could indicate a second wave will be occurring. The CDC changed the colors of the graph a few days ago to blue. Not sure why. Maybe it is to help people with red green color blindness. They also modified the format of the state data on the website so it is now harder to parse. This graph is from May 21: This is an average of deaths per day for the past 11 days ending June 4, 2020. New York 101 Illinois 82 New Jersey 81 Massachusetts 71 California 66 Pennsylvania 66 Ohio 39 Maryland 39 Michigan 37 Florida 34 Connecticut 32 Georgia 29 Virginia 26 Indiana 24 Texas 23 Minnesota 21 North Carolina 19 Arizona 19 Louisiana 18 Mississippi 16 Colorado 16 Rhode Island 15 Iowa 14 Wisconsi...
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Saturday March 21, 2020

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Here are the graphs for today: My latest data and forecast models are at: Spreadsheet Peak date for the USA currently looks to be around April 12. Peak date for Wisconsin currently looks to be around April 20. Remember later peak dates are better for survivability. My model is very simple at this point since it assumes exponential growth at the same rate until the entire population is infected. I may look at a SIR model later if I have time. Laurie is currently taking an inventory of all of our food so we can figure out how long we have. I think we need at least 60 days but I am afraid that we will need 90. We have decreased our coffee to 1 large scoop (usually it is 2 large and 1 small). I have been using the Nordic Track with IFit since we got it in February. Working on the Barcelona series right now. I planted lettuce, Swiss chard, cilantro, and spinach in the greenhouse today. It will take 40-45 days to harvest. It may still be too cold for ...
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