March 19, 2020
Here are the latest graphs for today:
I found the water container, filled it, and put it in the shower just in case the water goes out at some point.
Laurie made lamb with apricots for supper. I made slivered almonds. We are getting a bit edgy. I worked on my online classes today, and started recording videos.
I did some math. It looks like Wisconsin is currently doubling every 2 days or so based on the past two days of data:
104/72=1.44
1.44 x 1.44 = 2.08
Day 0 = 100 (today)
Day 2 = 200
Day 4 = 400
Day 6 = 800
Day 8 = 1,600
Day 10 = 3,200
Day 12 = 6,400
Day 14 = 12,800
Day 16 = 25,600
Day 18 = 51,200
Day 20 = 102,400
Day 22 = 204,800
Day 24 = 409,600
Day 26 = 819,200
Day 28 = 1,638,400
Day 30 = 3,276,800
Day 32= 6,553,600 (This is more than the population of the state)
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| Wisconsin now has a map showing the locations in the state |
This study was done to simulate different strategies to prevent the spread of Covid-19. See pages 5 and 8 especially:
How to stop the spread:
Why is this virus different from the flu? From Facebook:
It has to do with RNA sequencing.... i.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year... you get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses, come from animals.... the WHO tracks novel viruses in animals, (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1) (birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once, one of these animal viruses mutates, and starts to transfer from animals to humans... then it’s a problem, Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity.. the RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it so, we can’t fight it off.
Now.... sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human, for years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human... once that happens..we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, thats what decides how contagious, or how deadly it’s gonna be..
H1N1 was deadly....but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. It’s RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus... it existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long...but one day, at an animal market, in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person... But here is the scary part.... in just TWO WEEKS it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity). Took off like a rocket. And this was because, humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus, changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs..
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1 or any other type of influenza.... this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater...And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain s, and strain L....which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed, with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him, till the Black Plague passed...(honestly...I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation...
And let me end by saying....right now it’s hitting older folks harder... but this genome is so slippery...if it mutates again (and it will). Who is to say, what it will do next.
#flattenthecurve Stay home folks or simply away from others who may be carrying it if you can be outdoors somewhere... and share this to those that just are not catching on.
I am trying to decide if I should run in to work and pick up some tools so I can teach my measurement class virtually. Had Raisin Bran and Honey Bunches of Oats with Almonds mixed for breakfast. Laurie sounds like she might have a cough.I found the water container, filled it, and put it in the shower just in case the water goes out at some point.
Laurie made lamb with apricots for supper. I made slivered almonds. We are getting a bit edgy. I worked on my online classes today, and started recording videos.
I did some math. It looks like Wisconsin is currently doubling every 2 days or so based on the past two days of data:
104/72=1.44
1.44 x 1.44 = 2.08
Day 0 = 100 (today)
Day 2 = 200
Day 4 = 400
Day 6 = 800
Day 8 = 1,600
Day 10 = 3,200
Day 12 = 6,400
Day 14 = 12,800
Day 16 = 25,600
Day 18 = 51,200
Day 20 = 102,400
Day 22 = 204,800
Day 24 = 409,600
Day 26 = 819,200
Day 28 = 1,638,400
Day 30 = 3,276,800
Day 32= 6,553,600 (This is more than the population of the state)
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