Sunday March 22, 2020

I am trying to take a snapshot at around the same time every day since the numbers change so rapidly during the day. Here is the WHO data:


And... it turns out the CDC has not updated its numbers since Friday! Wisconsin has not updated since yesterday! We are at war! You need to post everyday. So it turns out we have no new information for today from the US.

Instead I will work on modeling with the information I have.

My first most primitive model just asked, "How long until the entire population is infected at this rate of infection?"

USA: April 12, 2020
Wisconsin: April 20, 2020
Minnesota: April 18, 2020
New York: April 10, 2020

This may turn out to be a pretty good model considering how the United States operates. However I expect at some point about half way to the peak there should be an inflection point, where the rate of growth begins to slow down. Once I know that it should be possible to predict when the peak is as long as I have a good mathematical function to fit to the data set.  It will also tell how long it takes to decay to safe levels again.

This seems to be a pretty good data source:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR2IVwsfrDbBa-NkmIy5CtOAuRoPjN8Y-J0AnN8ALNmAkaGwWlLs-dSLz_Q




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Friday June 5 2020

Image
The death rate in the United States showed an approximately exponential growth rate through the middle of April to just over 2000 deaths per day, then an approximately linear decline through the rest of April and May to the present rate of about 1000 deaths per day. The curve seems to be curving back up now which could indicate a second wave will be occurring. The CDC changed the colors of the graph a few days ago to blue. Not sure why. Maybe it is to help people with red green color blindness. They also modified the format of the state data on the website so it is now harder to parse. This graph is from May 21: This is an average of deaths per day for the past 11 days ending June 4, 2020. New York 101 Illinois 82 New Jersey 81 Massachusetts 71 California 66 Pennsylvania 66 Ohio 39 Maryland 39 Michigan 37 Florida 34 Connecticut 32 Georgia 29 Virginia 26 Indiana 24 Texas 23 Minnesota 21 North Carolina 19 Arizona 19 Louisiana 18 Mississippi 16 Colorado 16 Rhode Island 15 Iowa 14 Wisconsi...
Read more

Saturday March 21, 2020

Image
Here are the graphs for today: My latest data and forecast models are at: Spreadsheet Peak date for the USA currently looks to be around April 12. Peak date for Wisconsin currently looks to be around April 20. Remember later peak dates are better for survivability. My model is very simple at this point since it assumes exponential growth at the same rate until the entire population is infected. I may look at a SIR model later if I have time. Laurie is currently taking an inventory of all of our food so we can figure out how long we have. I think we need at least 60 days but I am afraid that we will need 90. We have decreased our coffee to 1 large scoop (usually it is 2 large and 1 small). I have been using the Nordic Track with IFit since we got it in February. Working on the Barcelona series right now. I planted lettuce, Swiss chard, cilantro, and spinach in the greenhouse today. It will take 40-45 days to harvest. It may still be too cold for ...
Read more

Saturday May 2 2020

Image
I went to CNN to look at the news and saw how poorly we were doing against the virus. Then I saw a post by a conservative friend linking the the CDC web site showing number of deaths about half of what I had been tracking. It turns out that data had been posted to an alt-right web site and was only based on a limited time period and was lagging behind the other data due to being based on death certificates. Then I went on to Fox news. The main information about the virus was mostly either light hearted or talked about how democratic governors were taking away the rights of citizens. The lead story was on Joe Biden. In order to have combated this virus successfully we would have needed a consistent response from the president, congress, the states, state legislatures, local authorities, and the media. Instead we have inconsistent messages coming from the white house, congress, local authorities, and different media organizations. This will cost peoples lives. People will die because o...
Read more