Friday March 20, 2020

I am using an exponential growth model which is the same as compound interest:

F=P(1+i)^n

The future value, F, equals present value, P, times the rate, (1+i), raised to the number of days, n.
For the future value I put in the population of the state (or country). Since I only have three days worth of data I took the average rate. This goes into a financial calculator to solve for N.

For Wisconsin the entire population should be infected in about 25 days
For the USA the entire population should be infected in about 22 days

The latest graphs:









Spent some time today researching more sophisticated models for the Covid-19 virus. These use a series of differential equations to model the spread of the virus:

https://triplebyte.com/blog/modeling-infectious-diseases

This online model lets you put in your own numbers, :

https://penn-chime.phl.io/ 

Here is a paper submitted to WHO:

https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/20-255158.pdf

China seems to have done a great job of shutting down the virus and holding it to only .006 % of its population.

Here is a way to model epidemics in R:

https://rpubs.com/choisy/sir


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